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THE PRESIDENCY: The public anxiety over the agenda that Obama and his Democratic allies are trying to force on the country continues to increase. Political analyst Charlie Cook notes that no other president in the past half-century has seen his Gallup job-approval rating drop as far as Obama's has in his first year (down 21 points). And no president in 50 years has seen his approval rating go up -- even as much as 1 point -- between the end of his first year and the eve of his first midterm election. Obama and his party have no doubt taken on big and important fights. But given the nation's tremendous economic troubles they don't seem to have picked the right ones.

What the President and congressional Democrats are trying to do on health care reform and climate change are both clearly a colossal miscalculation, Cook says. The latest unemployment and housing numbers underscore the folly of their decision to pay so much attention to health care and environmental issues instead of focusing on the economy "like a laser beam," as President Clinton pledged during his 1992 campaign.

UNEMPLOYMENT: Last week's disappointing December unemployment report was the final blow in what was already a bad week for Democrats. One of the most sobering findings in the report was that if 661,000 Americans had not given up even looking for work that month, the unemployment rate would have moved up rather than holding steady at a horrific 10 percent.

And the latest polls show that the numbers back up Cook’s assessment. In the aftermath of the failed Christmas Day terrorist attack on a Detroit-bound airliner, Obama’s ratings for reducing the threat of terrorism have also slipped. Now 33% now say that the ability of terrorists to launch a major attack on the U.S. is greater than it was at the time of 9/11; the highest percentage expressing this view in surveys dating to 2002.

ANTI-TERRORISM: Even as the public has also become far more concerned that Obama’s anti-terrorism policies are failing to protect the country – it is far less concerned that these policies restrict civil liberties as the president has his liberal allies repeatedly argue. That is part of their rationale for closing Guantanamo and giving terrorists the legal rights of American citizens – another policy widely rejected by voters.

The latest national survey by the non-partisan Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, finds that fully 58% say that their greater concern about anti-terrorism policy is that the government has not gone far enough to protect the country; 27% say their greater concern is that the government has gone too far in restricting civil liberties. That represents a dramatic shift from just two months ago: In November, roughly equal percentages expressed concern about national security (40%) and civil liberties (36%).

Obama is also still tanking in the support of his other domestic agenda items. Just 38% approve of his handling of health care policy while for the first time a majority (52%) disapprove if his landmark policy. Obama receives even lower ratings for his handling of the budget deficit (32% approve) and immigration policy (30%).

EFFECTIVENESS: While his personal ratings remain high – such as leadership, trustworthiness and Effectiveness -- just 32% say he is a strong leader. The survey also finds that with the health care debate is at a crucial stage, as more people continue to generally oppose (48%) than generally favor (39%) the health care bills before Congress. Opinion about health care legislation had been stable in recent months.

In assessing the personal impact of health care legislation, relatively few say they expect

their insurance coverage to improve should the measure become law. Fewer than half (39%) say their ability to get health insurance with a pre-existing medical condition would get better if the Obama measures are enacted,

Regarding the quality of health care they receive and choices of doctors and hospitals, pluralities expect no changes as a result of the legislation (41% quality of care, 40% choice of doctors). However, about twice as many people expect that these and other aspects of their own health care would get worse, rather than get better, if the proposed changes become law.

PREFERENCES: Equally as significant is that as 2010 begins, voters are evenly divided in their preferences on the so-called generic ballot: 46% say if the midterm elections were held today they would vote for a Democratic candidate for Congress in their district, or lean Democratic; while 44% say they would vote for a Republican or lean Republican. That represents little change from August 2009, but is a marked shift from the 2006 midterms when Democrats consistently held 20-point leads.

But this year’s midterms lag behind major sporting events – the Winter Olympics and the

Super Bowl -- on the list of the public’s most anticipated events in 2010: 61% say they are especially looking forward to next month’s Winter Olympics while 58% say they are especially looking forward to the Super Bowl; fewer (50%) say the same about the midterms. Smaller percentages say they are particularly looking forward to the Academy Awards (31%) and the World Cup soccer tournament (23%). But that too is bad news for the Democrats, as lack of voter enthusiasm hurts them more.

And for Republicans, the midterms rank among the year’s top events. Fully 60% of Republicans told Pew say they are especially looking forward to the midterm elections; that is only somewhat fewer than the proportion of Republicans that said they were looking forward to the 2008 presidential election (66%). Democrats, however, are not as eagerly anticipating this year’s elections: 48% say they are especially looking forward to the elections, while the same percentage says they are not. A little more than two years ago, 82% of Democrats said they were especially looking forward to the 2008 presidential election.

GRIM MOOD: The national mood also remains grim, indicating that Obama has failed to rally the national spirits; 27% say they are satisfied with the way things are going in the country, a figure that has changed little since the summer.

But there is considerable optimism that 2010 will be a better year than 2009, which could boost Obama and the Democratic performance in November; 67% say the coming year will better, compared with 52% who said that last January and 50% in December 2007.

Still, there are also partisan differences in optimism about the coming year. More than eight-in-ten Democrats (83%) say 2010 will be better than 2009, compared with 60% of independents and 55% of Republicans. But while positive assessments of the year ahead have risen among Democrats and Republicans alike the key will be the employment rate.

JOBS: Most economists had been expecting an increase of about 50,000 jobs in December. Instead the number declined by 85,000. Some 6.1 million Americans, the highest number in the post-World War II era, have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more. The "U-6," rate of unemployment -- which adds in people who are working part-time while seeking full-time work and those who have stopped looking -- stands at 17.3 percent, the highest level in the 15 years that the Labor Department has calculated it.

A number of economists expect that unemployment will get worse before it gets better. Even if that prediction is wrong, some analysts estimate that Labor's household employment survey would have to show a net increase of 150,000 jobs a month for 48 straight months for the unemployment rate to drop to just 9 percent. Since World War II, unemployment has exceeded 8 percent in a total of only 12 months in even-numbered (congressional election) years. All 12 months were in 1982.

CHORUS: Joining the chorus of doubters is syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer. He notes that a year ago Obama was he was king of the world, and now his disapproval rating is the highest ever recorded by Gallup at the beginning of a president's second year. “A year ago, he was leader of a liberal ascendancy that would last 40 years (James Carville). A year ago, conservatism was dead (Sam Tanenhaus). Now the race to fill Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in bluest of blue Massachusetts has been surprisingly close and become a referendum on Obama and his agenda, most particularly health care reform.”

“A year ago, Obama was the most charismatic politician on earth. Today the thrill is gone, the doubts growing. The reason for today's vast discontent, presaged by spontaneous national Tea Party opposition is about substance. With remarkable political honesty and courage, Obama unveiled the most radical (in American terms) ideological agenda since the New Deal: the fundamental restructuring of three pillars of American society -- health care, education and energy.”

DESCENT: “Then began the descent -- when, more amazingly still, Obama devoted himself to turning these statist visions into legislative reality. First he acted on energy with the cap-and-trade bill; an unprecedented federal intrusion into American industry and commerce. Then, the keystone: a health care revolution in which the federal government will regulate in crushing detail one-sixth of the U.S. economy.”

“Obama acted ideologically. Perhaps he thought he'd been sent to the White House to do just that. If so, he vastly over-read his mandate. His own electoral success -- twinned with handy victories and large majorities in both houses of Congress -- was a referendum on his predecessor's governance and the post-Lehman financial collapse. It was not an endorsement of European-style social democracy; hence the resistance and the fall.”